Di Giovanna, Fabio (2025) Predictive models and decision analysis for the identification of areas suitable for submarine cables. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract

Submarine fiber-optic cables are critical components of global communication infrastructure, enabling high-capacity international data exchange. However, their deployment presents significant environmental and logistical challenges, particularly within ecologically sensitive marine environments. This thesis, co-funded by Elettra Tlc, addresses the need for sustainable submarine cable routing by developing a comprehensive, data-driven framework that integrates geophysical, ecological, socio economic, and technical considerations. The approach is applied to a case study in the Tyrrhenian Sea, focusing on a hypothetical submarine cable route extending from Genoa to Mazara del Vallo (Sicily), designed to minimize environmental impact while maintaining engineering feasibility. Elettra Tlc is an Italian company specializing in marine survey, cable laying, and maintenance services for submarine telecommunications and power systems, supporting the development of sustainable offshore infrastructure across the Mediterranean. In Chapter 1, systematic literature review and extensive data mining were conducted to compile existing information on benthic habitats, tectonic structures, and anthropogenic pressures within the Tyrrhenian Sea. Key data sources included the repositories, peer-reviewed literature accessed through Web of Science and Scopus, and nautical cartography. All spatial layers were standardized and integrated into a unified GIS environment, resulting in critical predictors such as substrate type, slope gradient, and human activity intensity. The created geodatabase has been archived and made publicly available through the institutional repositories of CNR-ISMAR. In Chapter 2, punctual spatial information of key species forming “animal forests”, sensitive benthic habitats formed by suspension-feeding corals, sponges, and bivalves, was extended to the Tyrrhenian Sea through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). Species occurrence records were analyzed using Non metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) and hierarchical clustering to group species according to their preferences for the considered environmental variables. Separate HSMs were then developed for each group, modelling together species sharing similar environmental affinities to predict areas potentially suitable for animal forest presence. Among the sensitive benthic habitats that may be affected by cable installation and maintenance activities are represented by Cold-Water Corals (CWCs), which can form three-dimensional biogenic structures providing essential ecological functions. In Chapter 3 and 4, suitability models were applied to two local situations hosting scleractinian CWCs. Chapter 3 reports the results of the HSM model applied in the Gulf of Naples, illustrating its application in a Mediterranean local context. Chapter 4 extends the approach to a different and more complex environmental setting, the submarine canyon of Bremer and Perth and the mount Gabi in Australia, demonstrating the model’s applicability in deep-sea region with complete different oceanographic conditions. The Chapter 5 integrates the spatial datasets collected in previous chapters into a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to decide different cable routes, where weighting schemes were derived from stakeholder questionnaires representing three groups: Citizen Science, Researchers, and Industry. Each weighting configuration generated a distinct cost surface, upon which Least-Cost Path Analysis (LCPA) algorithms computed optimal submarine cable routes. The proposed framework supports route planning by providing reproducible and transparent suitability maps that can be adapted to different policy contexts or future climate projections. Ultimately, this research delivers a flexible decision-support tool for stakeholders, including telecommunications providers, regulatory agencies, and marine spatial planners, supporting the resilient and environmentally responsible expansion of the global submarine cable network.

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