Nota, Luca Denis (2025) Three Essays in International Trade: the Role of Infrastructures and Environmental Regulations. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract

This doctoral thesis in international trade examines the economic consequences of infrastructure disruptions and environmental regulatory policy changes, linking short-run microeconomic firm-level outcomes with long-run general equilibrium effects. Through three interconnected chapters, this work explores: (i) the estimated impacts of a sudden disruption in a critical road infrastructure on exports and firm performances, (ii) the simulated general equilibrium effects on TFP, GDP and employment of such disruptions using a quantitative spatial model, and (iii) the implications of climate policy stringency on heterogeneous international trade patterns. The first chapter provides an empirical analysis of the economic impact of the sudden disruption of a bottleneck in the highway network in Northern Italy, specifically examining its effects on exports and firm performances. Using a granular dataset combining trade transactions and firm-level balance sheets, and employing a rigorous identification strategy through optimal routing algorithms, the study evaluates the propagation of the negative effects of a shock through the road network. The findings indicate a significant decline in exports between affected Italian firms and France, together with negative consequences for firms in terms of sales, employment, investment, value-added, and labour productivity. Importantly, results suggest that these adverse effects persist even after the infrastructure is restored, highlighting the difficulties in restoring trade relationships after a shock in trade costs. The empirical impacts found in Chapter 1 refer to the short-run effects of a temporary shock. In the second Chapter, this thesis explores the long-run general equilibrium effects of the same shock if it was permanent. This is done employing a quantitative spatial model to simulate the regional, sectoral, and aggregate general equilibrium effects of the infrastructure disruption. By calibrating the model using Italian and French regional data, the study estimates the long-run consequences of the Polcevera viaduct collapse in Genoa. The analysis reveals that disruptions in key transportation nodes can lead to measurable declines in GDP and to reallocation of workers. Importantly, the findings suggest that the benefits of reconstructing key road infrastructures significantly exceed their associated costs, with relevant policy implications. The third Chapter extends the analysis by considering the trade responses to an exogenous policy change; this is done by investigating the effects of increased stringency in unilateral climate policy. Specifically, the work examines the transition from grandfathering to auctioning in phase III of the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS); this policy change heterogeneously altered firms’ cost structures across sectors. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology and firm-level trade data, the study finds no evidence of cost pass-through to trade prices, suggesting firms did not transfer regulatory costs to foreign customers or adjust input sourcing towards cheaper suppliers. Moreover, the findings indicate an increase in export volumes to extra-EU ETS countries and a simultaneous increase in imports: this can be interpreted as potential offshoring or outsourcing behaviour among affected firms, or as an increase in production efficiency. Acommon thread linking these three chapters is the study of how firms and trade relationships adapt to exogenous shocks in trade costs, whether from physical disruptions to infrastructure or policy. Both the first and second chapters emphasize the vulnerability of economic systems to transport infrastructure disruptions, highlighting persistent adverse effects on trade and firm performances, as well as broader macroeconomic impacts. The third chapter complements this discussion by showing that firms respond to policy-induced cost changes not by adjusting prices but by modifying trade patterns and sourcing strategies. Taken together, these findings provide valuable insights into the resilience of firms and trade networks in the face of shocks, highlighting the importance of strategic infrastructure investment and well-designed policies in sustaining economic stability and competitiveness.

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