Tinessa, Fiore (2018) Investigating the potential of the combination of random utility models (CoRUM) for discrete choice modelling and travel demand analysis. [Tesi di dottorato]


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Item Type: Tesi di dottorato
Resource language: English
Title: Investigating the potential of the combination of random utility models (CoRUM) for discrete choice modelling and travel demand analysis
Tinessa, Fiorefiore.tinessa@unina.it
Date: 11 December 2018
Number of Pages: 190
Institution: Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Department: Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale
Dottorato: Ingegneria dei sistemi civili
Ciclo di dottorato: 31
Coordinatore del Corso di dottorato:
Papola, Andreapapola@unina.it
Date: 11 December 2018
Number of Pages: 190
Keywords: discrete choice, travel demand, route choice
Settori scientifico-disciplinari del MIUR: Area 08 - Ingegneria civile e Architettura > ICAR/05 - Trasporti
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2019 18:11
Last Modified: 23 Jun 2020 09:29
URI: http://www.fedoa.unina.it/id/eprint/12717

Collection description

People make choices every day. Many choices have a strong impact on the quality or their life.Each day a person wakes up and chooses which action he wants to do before, what to have for breakfast, what to wear, what time to go outside, how to manage his/her day by virtue of the budget and time constraints, which place to move to and how, which activity to do, which one to do before or after and so forth. There are choices that are not made every day, but they have a strong impact on the decision maker’s well-being. In fact, sooner or later, a person will decide his household location, whether to own a car, the typology and the vehicle model, whether to own a pet, which breed or size, how many children to have, in which school register them and much more. Some of the above-mentioned choice examples involve mobility. Thus, it is easy to recognize why these kind of choices form the basis for the planning and policy actions in the transport field. What is called, at aggregate level, congestion or traffic, represents the sum of individual choices that everyone makes at different levels: do I move? What time do I move? Where I want to go? Which transport mode do I want to use? What itinerary do I travel? This kind of choices, that can be termed transport choices, relating the so-called travel behaviour, are characterized by a significant modelling complexity. The random utility theory represents the most widely used paradigm in modelling the behaviour of people who make choices. This thesis investigates the potential of the combination of random utility models (CoRUM; Papola, 2016) for travel demand analysis and discrete choice modelling in general. In the current work, several theoretical advances and some specific transport-field applications are carried out. The CoRUM framework, in fact, is very general and allows for handling several discrete choice modelling crucial issues. The thesis is structured as follows: Chapter 2 reviews the state of the art on random utility theory and its application to route choice. In particular, the Section 2.1 provides the basic setup for the description of RUMs; Section 2.2 reviews the random utility models available in the literature, with reference to the two main problems of the error structure (inter-correlations and heteroskedasticity problems) and the inter/intra-respondent taste variation; Section 2.3 briefly summarizes the main applications of the random utility theory to the route choice problem; Section 2.4 describes the main assumptions of the Combination of random utility models (CoRUM) as a general framework for modelling discrete choices, with particular reference to travel choices. Chapter 3 investigates more general specifications of the CoRUM than those previously analysed, allowing accommodating also the taste heterogeneity and the heteroscedasticity, in particular by combining mixtures of RUMs. To this end, the chapter proposes a theoretical generalization of the CoRUM framework and a real-world application on data collected on a stated survey of 1688 observations of 211 respondents. Chapter 4 represents an estimation exercise with applications on future scenarios on the main closed form random utility models, on synthetic datasets with variable sample sizes and complex underlying correlation scenarios. Such correlation scenarios, on the other hand, can be representative of typical mode choice or route choice contexts. The aim of this chapter is investigating the potential of the CoNL (and the other models) in terms of forecasting, and comparing it with the models goodness of fit performances. Chapter 5 proposes a new route choice model obtained under the CoRUM framework. It describes an algorithm to generate a CoNL specification, allowing detecting a set and a composition for the components of the model, and a way to compute all the structural model parameters, whatever the network. Chapter 6 is currently an original contribution of this thesis and describes several advance compared to the published work in Chapter 5. In particular, an implicit enumeration algorithm theoretically consistent with the CoRUM route choice model,is proposed and tested on toy networks; an in-depth analysis of the complex route choice models is carried out on their ability to reproduce complex correlation scenarios, drawing important conclusions, both theoretical and applicative, on the novel CoNL route choice model, proposed in Chapter 5, and on the existent Link Nested Logit model; some practical advance on the original route choice model is proposed and tested both on toy networks and on a real network (Region Campania network). The goodness of fit of the CoNL route choice has been analysed and compared with the one of the other route choice models, using real observations collected by means of GPS detection of about 200 trajectories. Chapter 7 reports a summary of the conclusions reached in the whole thesis and proposes several ideas for future research steps.


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