Zollo, Aldo and Emolo, Antonio and Festa, Gaetano and Gasparini, Paolo (2009) Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation. [Pubblicazione in rivista scientifica]

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Item Type: Pubblicazione in rivista scientifica
Lingua: English
Title: Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
Gasparini, PaoloUNSPECIFIED
Autore/i: A. Zollo, G. Iannaccone, M. Lancieri, L. Cantore, V. Convertito, A. Emolo, G. Festa, F. Gallovic, M. Vassallo, C. Martino, C. Satriano, P. Gasparini
Date: 2009
Number of Pages: 6
Department: Scienze fisiche
Identification Number: 10.1029/2008GL036689
Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL036689...
Journal or Publication Title: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Date: 2009
Volume: 36
Page Range: pp. 157-161
Number of Pages: 6
Uncontrolled Keywords: sismologia, early warning, rete ISNet
Identification Number: 10.1029/2008GL036689
Date Deposited: 21 Oct 2010 06:57
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2014 19:43
URI: http://www.fedoa.unina.it/id/eprint/7532


We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.


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