Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation

ZOLLO, ALDO and EMOLO, ANTONIO and FESTA, GAETANO and GASPARINI, PAOLO (2009) Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation. [Pubblicazione su rivista scientifica]

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URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL036689.shtml

Abstract

We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.

Tipologia di documento:Pubblicazione su rivista scientifica
Parole chiave:sismologia, early warning, rete ISNet
Settori scientifico-disciplinari MIUR:Non specificato
Stato del full text:Accessibilità ristretta
Data:2009
Altri Autori:A. Zollo, G. Iannaccone, M. Lancieri, L. Cantore, V. Convertito, A. Emolo, G. Festa, F. Gallovic, M. Vassallo, C. Martino, C. Satriano, P. Gasparini
Numero di pagine:6
Intervallo di pagina:pp. 157-161
Volume:36
URL:http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL036689.shtml
Dipartimento o Struttura:Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche
Numero identificativo:10.1029/2008GL036689
Titolo rivista/pubblicazione:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Numero di sistema:7532
Depositato il:21 Ottobre 2010 08:57
Ultima modifica:21 Ottobre 2010 08:57

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