Fumai, Antonio (2024) Multi-Level Seismic Risk Analysis of Italian Navy Facilities. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract

Given the high levels of natural and anthropic hazards together with the instability of the current geopolitical context, ensuring the operational efficiency of the ships and naval bases of the Italian Navy (IN) is a crucial task. Indeed, IN provides also support to the Italian Civil Protection system in case of hazardous events such as earthquakes. Since the 2000s, IN has initiated seismic vulnerability assessments of its structures located across the country. Despite continuous efforts, seismic risk mitigation of the IN building portfolio is still an open issue. A process of identifying the most critical structures is necessary. The multiple functions performed by IN in different emergency scenarios must be taken into account in the criticality analysis. In such a situation, furthermore, knowing the efficiency level of a Naval Base immediately after an event can increase the readiness of the Armed Force's response. The aim of the present work is to provide rapid tools for seismic risk assessment and post-earthquake performance of naval bases, accounting for both direct and indirect losses. In this respect, it is specified that a vast majority of the IN building stock consists of masonry buildings. In the first part of the study, a model for quick probabilistic estimation of seismic damage to masonry buildings is defined in the form of a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The BBN model shows good accuracy in reproducing the earthquake damage observed on 10,133 ordinary buildings and 379 strategic buildings, as reported in the D.a.D.O. platform. In the second part of the study, a probabilistic approach to the post-earthquake operational efficiency assessment of naval bases is presented, including the estimation of the expected number of unavailable vessels. Finally, the BBN model and the methodologies proposed in this study are applied to a real naval base. Under different scenarios, the implementation of the methodology allows evaluating the criticality level of the system and subsystems, as well as the identification of the buildings for which considerable functionality, economic and human losses are expected.

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