Russo, Claudio (2025) Marginal lands and underutilized crops: a strategy to increase sustainability of biofuel production. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract

This thesis addresses three main research objectives: i) to evaluate the sustainability of underutilized crops, also referred to as second-generation feedstocks, for biofuel production, with a specific focus on the availability of marginal land; ii) to assess the distribution and potential availability of marginal land (including pedoclimatic criteria) in Italy for under-utilized crops; iii) to estimate the productivity of selected UUCs on marginal lands through an ensemble of two process-based crop models under different agronomic management scenarios and different pedoclimatic combination. After this introductory section (Chapter 1), this thesis will be developed in 3 more chapters. In the second chapter it will be introduced and discussed the central dilemma of biofuel production: how to respond to a growing global energy demand while avoiding or minimizing negative trade-offs with food security and environmental sustainability. In Europe, biofuel policies are becoming increasingly strict on sustainability, which directly influence the type of crops that can be used. Relying on first generation crops is no longer a viable long-term strategy. In contrast, second-generation feedstocks represent a promising opportunity to develop more sustainable value chains, since they can adapt to environmental constraints a to low-input management. Still, their potential must be quantified. Understanding how much these crops could produce on marginal lands, and how they might contribute to the energy mix, is crucial to assess their real impact. For these reasons, the third chapter brings together two complementary approaches. On one side, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) is employed to integrate biophysical and socio-economic constraints and to provide a spatial representation of marginality for crop production across Italy. On the other hand, process-based crop models are used to simulate the growth and productivity of several underutilized crops, under different levels of input and management. By linking land suitability with simulated crop performance, the chapter aims to quantify the contribution that marginal lands could realistically provide to a biofuel production in the Italian context. The simulations highlighted promising opportunities but also revealed important limitations. Biofuels derived from marginal lands may effectively contribute to hard-to abate sectors such as aviation and shipping, yet they cannot represent a universal solution for light transport, where more scalable solutions like electrification remain more viable. To further improve the sustainability of biofuel production, it becomes essential to reduce inputs without compromising yields. This challenge depends not only on agronomic practices, but also on the choice of cultivars. While major crops have undergone decades of breeding to enhance performance, underutilized species have received little genetic improvement. Selecting the right cultivar is therefore critical to minimize yield losses under marginal conditions. Traits such as plasticity in root architecture, leaf morphology, or stomatal regulation can make a decisive difference in resilience to drought. For these reasons the fourth chapter addresses these aspects by presenting field experiments on safflower, grown under contrasting pedoclimatic conditions and water management regimes. These trials provide direct evidence of how genotypic differences and trait plasticity shape yield and oil production. Beyond their agronomic relevance, such experiments also provide the empirical foundation for future modelling efforts. It will be possible to improve the parametrization of process-based models and ultimately achieve more accurate and reliable simulations, by collecting robust data on the most resilient cultivars.

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