Sarwar, Awais Naeem (2025) Evaluating the Role of Nature-Based Solutions in Water Resource Enhancement: A Hydrological Modeling Approach. [Tesi di dottorato]

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Abstract

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as sustainable and multifunctional strategies for addressing global water challenges, including water scarcity, pollution, and hydro-climatic extremes. By harnessing ecological processes, NbS deliver multiple co-benefits, including climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, biodiversity conservation, and improved social well-being. Despite growing global attention, the large-scale identification, quantification, and validation of their impacts remain constrained by fragmented frameworks, limited numerical assessments of hydrological performance, and weak integration of stakeholder and policy perspectives. These gaps hinder the systematic evaluation of NbS effectiveness and comparability with conventional engineered systems. This thesis aims to address these challenges and limitations by developing and applying an integrated, quantitative, and participatory framework for identifying, selecting, and evaluating NbS at the catchment scale. The framework couples spatially explicit GISbased analysis with numerical hydrological modeling using the DREAM (Distributed Rainfall-Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Antecedent Soil Moisture) model, enabling rigorous simulation and quantification of NbS performance under different land-use and management scenarios. By combining ecological, climatic, and geomorphological criteria with stakeholder-informed validation, the framework ensures that the selected interventions are both scientifically sound and socio-economically feasible. The methodology was applied within the Mediterranean context through the OurMED PRIMA Program project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant No. 2222), with a focus on the Bode River Basin. Stakeholders identified and prioritized key NbS interventions, including reforestation, rooftop rainwater harvesting, and infiltration basins, which were simulated using the DREAM model to quantify their hydrological impacts. Modeling results demonstrated that these NbS effectively reduce surface runoff (by up to 8%), attenuate peak flows (by up to4 | P a g e −24 m³/day), and increase groundwater recharge (by up to +3.5 m³/day). Collectively, they enhance infiltration, stabilize baseflow, and mitigate risks of flooding and drought. Beyond hydrological benefits, the NbS deliver synergistic ecological and socio-economic gains, supporting climate resilience, agricultural sustainability, and ecosystem health. The thesis makes three key contributions. First, it advances methodological innovation by integrating quantitative modeling into NbS evaluation, thus overcoming current limitations in performance assessment and providing measurable evidence of hydrological effectiveness. Second, it presents a replicable operational framework that combines scientific rigor with participatory validation, ensuring local relevance and policy applicability. Third, it demonstrates the alignment of NbS implementation with multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land), by linking ecosystem-based strategies to global sustainability targets. By operationalizing NbS assessment through spatially explicit modeling and participatory design, this research provides a robust and transferable approach for quantifying and operationalizing NbS in water resource management. The outcomes equip decision-makers, planners, and communities with an evidence-based pathway for embedding NbS into policy and practice, demonstrating that nature-driven solutions can serve as quantifiable, resilient, and socially legitimate alternatives to conventional water management approaches under current and future climate conditions.

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