Polidoro, Barbara
(2014)
Some seismicclusterbased models for risk analysis of structures.
[Tesi di dottorato]
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Item Type: 
Tesi di dottorato

Lingua: 
English 
Title: 
Some seismicclusterbased models for risk analysis of structures 
Creators: 
Creators  Email 

Polidoro, Barbara  barbara.polidoro@unina.it 

Date: 
29 March 2014 
Number of Pages: 
120 
Institution: 
Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II 
Department: 
Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura 
Scuola di dottorato: 
Scienze fisiche 
Dottorato: 
Rischio sismico 
Ciclo di dottorato: 
26 
Coordinatore del Corso di dottorato: 
nome  email 

Zollo, Aldo  aldo.zollo@unina.it 

Tutor: 
nome  email 

Iervolino, Iunio  UNSPECIFIED 

Date: 
29 March 2014 
Number of Pages: 
120 
Uncontrolled Keywords: 
stochastic processes; clusters; seismic hazard assessment; lifecycle models 
Settori scientificodisciplinari del MIUR: 
Area 08  Ingegneria civile e Architettura > ICAR/09  Tecnica delle costruzioni 
Date Deposited: 
15 Apr 2014 16:27 
Last Modified: 
15 Jul 2015 01:01 
URI: 
http://www.fedoa.unina.it/id/eprint/9771 
Abstract
This thesis focuses on some timevariant aspects having an impact the seismic hazard and analysis on the lifecycle assessment of structures.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), is usually computed through the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP), which is a stationaryincrement memoryless model. However, when a single fault is of concern and/or the time scale is different from that of the long term, other models may be more suitable to represent the random earthquakes generation. Hence, after Chapter 1, which is the introduction, Chapter 2, provides a brief review of the most important assumptions of some historydependent processes, which may be used for seismic hazard assessment. Attention is focused on renewal processes, which are usually adopted when characteristic earthquakes are of concern, that is, when it is assumed that the considered source tends to produce characteristic magnitude events and, on other models which also allow to include a relationship between the time and the magnitude of the earthquake (both are considered as random variables).
Traditional PSHA only refers to the occurrence of mainshocks, that is, prominent magnitude earthquakes possibly identified within a sequence of events concentrated both in space and time (i.e., clusters). Within the sequence, according to some models, aftershocks may be seen as triggered by the mainshock. On this basis, some authors developed the aftershockPSHA to evaluate the aftershock hazard expressed in terms of rate of exceedance of a ground motion intensity measure threshold. Starting from these studies, in Chapter 3, it is shown how it is possible to analytically combine results of PSHA and APSHA to get a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for mainshockaftershocks seismic sequences (SPSHA).
Finally, still accounting for the effect of the whole cluster, in Chapter 4, a stochastic lifecycle damage accumulation model for earthquake resistant structures is developed. In particular, it is assumed that the occurrence of earthquake clusters is regulated by a HPP characterized by the same rate considered for the mainshocks. Within the cluster, mainshocks follow a HPP while aftershocks follow a NHPP according to APSHA. The model also accounts for the fact that the structure may suffer damage both in the mainshock and in the following aftershocks and that not all events are strong enough to damage it. It is also added the case in which damage in a single cluster is susceptible of gamma and inverse Gaussian representation whose reproductive property allows a closed and/or approximateform solutions for absolute and conditional reliability problems.
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