Russolillo, Maria (2006) Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: methodological and computational issues. [Tesi di dottorato] (Unpublished)

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Item Type: Tesi di dottorato
Language: English
Title: Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: methodological and computational issues
Creators:
CreatorsEmail
Russolillo, MariaUNSPECIFIED
Date: 2006
Date Type: Publication
Number of Pages: 91
Institution: Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Department: Matematica e statistica
PHD name: Matematica per l'analisi economica e la finanza
PHD cycle: 17
PHD Coordinator:
nameemail
Di Lorenzo, EmiliaUNSPECIFIED
Tutor:
nameemail
Di Lorenzo, EmiliaUNSPECIFIED
Date: 2006
Number of Pages: 91
Uncontrolled Keywords: Mortality forecasting, Life expectancy, Fair value
MIUR S.S.D.: Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/05 - Econometria
Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-S/06 - Metodi matematici dell'economia e delle scienze attuariali e finanziarie
Date Deposited: 31 Jul 2008
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2014 19:23
URI: http://www.fedoa.unina.it/id/eprint/697

Abstract

In this thesis we describe relevant aspects of the development of survival modelling in actuarial mathematics. In particular we introduce some recent mortality projection models and research dealing with uncertainty in future trends and we review the relevant actuarial evidence. We then investigate the feasibility of using the Lee-Carter methodology to construct mortality forecasts for the Italian population. We fit the model to the matrix of Italian death rates for each gender from 1950 to 2000. A time-varying index of mortality is forecasted in an ARIMA framework and is used to generate projected life tables. In particular we focus on life expectancies at birth and, for the purpose of comparison, we introduce an alternative approach for forecasting life expectancies on a period basis. The resulting forecasts generated by the two methods are then compared. We also analyse, in a Lee Carter mortality context, the standard endowment policy under a fair value approach. In order to determine an actuarial model for the fair valuation of the stochastic stream of cash flows at time t, we base our demographic assumptions on the life and death probabilities extracted from the tables constructed using the Lee Carter model. The emphasis of the existing literature has been on financial markets; the primary feature of our model is its focus on the demographic reference system.

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